Go challenge
When asked by someone about my chance of beating you in go, you said it’s “basically zero”. And as if that wasn’t insulting enough, when asked about the exact number, you said “probably 1 in 40″ (for the curious reader — no, this is not Lee Changho we’re talking about, he’s not even a professional).
I’m not sure whether it was before or after, but the same person who asked you also asked me the same question, and I said 1 in 5. After rethinking it, I admit it might have been a bit on the optimistic side (not nearly as much as you though), but I’m not going to change it for following calculations.
Now that we have some numbers, we can find a fair middle value… x/5 = 40/x gives us x=14.142135624, so each of us is getting 2.828427125 times better deal than they wanted. And because I like you, I’ll make it 14. Sounds fair, doesn’t it?
You choose the time settings (I’m open to various possibilities, thought I probably wouldn’t like any of the extremes).
You choose the size of bets (when you win, you get 1, when I win, I get 14 — that’s fixed). Again, I’m open to various proposals, but it shouldn’t be ridiculously low (at least 2€ per unit) and it shouldn’t be ridiculously high (my budget for this experiment shouldn’t exceed 2k€).
I’d like to play at least a dozen games (possibly many more, basically as many as you want, as long as I’m within my budget 
)
Also, I can assure you that since then, I haven’t studied go for more than 2 hours a week and I do not plan on increasing that.
There are several ways out for you (sorted by lameness):
- pretending you haven’t read this post (lameness factor 100%)
- saying you were joking (come on, there were people around and everyone saw you were being serious, lameness 95%)
- trying to bargain a better course (look, I’m not a businessman and I’m not going to bargain, if you win just one third of what you claim you can win, you’ll be fine; lameness 90%)
- coming up with an excuse (lameness ranging from 80% to 110% depending on the excuse)
- not enough money (first, you are going to win big, so this is not an issue, second, if by some chance you lost, I can wait and you pay with inflation corrected interest)
- not enough time (come on, as we all know, you are too smart to be able to get a job, so you have plenty of free time)
- any other lame excuse
- admitting that you were wrong AND that you are an arrogant asshole
(lameness factor 50%) - accepting the challenge (lameness factor 0%)
With love, always yours,
tasuki
PS: Feel free to respond here.
Posted on 2008-08-23 at 1:00 pm, filed under go. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
who?
he knows… plus, don’t you think I’d have written who if I wanted to?
Look forward to the match
grr.. delete previous comment pls
yup, that gave it away pretty much
ps. plz play on KGS kthx
as I am the one who made two of you to argue over your chances I will be delighted to watch the series
however i estimate the likelihood of it being played to less than 1/40
juggler: first - we aren’t arguing
second, I’m giving him 65% discount, shouldn’t that be enough?
Wowowow!
)
I guess I should learn from you how to pin someone down, cause as I see you’re really master in that (I guess I’m as good as you are, but maybe more subtle
You didn’t include me in excuses. That’s almost insulting.
B.w.
According to http://gemma.ujf.cas.cz/~cieply/GO/gor.html there’s about a one in 7.5 chance for a 4d beating a 6d.
Ok, so it seems my estimate was off, what do you expect when someone asks a question like this out of the blue in a vacation setting? (For how I came up with 1/40: I remembered 1/7 being the lowest figure in that list so I multiplied by 1/6 for one rank less for about 1/40. Well <2.5% is almost zero no?) I apologize if you were insulted, that obviously wasn’t my intention, but if you really cared I guess you’d just have told me privately instead of publicly posting something about it.
I sent you an invitation on DGS. If you want to put money on it make me a real offer cause I’m obviously not going to care about something I said while being half-drunk and without any good data.
Incidentally I think you should get your next job for a paparazzi newspaper, cause A) your figures are off: 1 in 14 means I’d have to win *13* vs. you 1 to break even, so you’d get 13 points not 14,
you seem to be very adept at painting one-sided populist but completely nonsensical pictures on random info that’s a month old.
and
Awaiting your reply
Ok, so it seems my estimate was off, what do you expect when someone asks a question like this out of the blue in a vacation setting?
Well, you were confident enough to say 1 in 40 but you are not confident enough to put some money down on 1 in 14. I think that already says a lot.
I sent you an invitation on DGS. If you want to put money on it make me a real offer cause I’m obviously not going to care about something I said while being half-drunk and without any good data.
Funny, you didn’t need a game to estimate 1 in 40, now 1 in 14 is way too much and you need a game to estimate where around 1 in 7 it should be?
This is the real offer, 65% discount. Obviously you do not care about it now, but obviously you didn’t care about not having any good data back then. You could have said “I don’t know, let’s play a game so that I can see”, but you didn’t need that back then. By the way, I not surprised that the estimate was way overestimated instead of underestimated.
your figures are off
My bad… sorry, I didn’t intend to trick you.
you seem to be very adept at painting one-sided populist but completely nonsensical pictures on random info that’s a month old
What the hell? It is “a month old”, yeah, because I have to work and I’m a busy person. But how is it one-sided? How is it populistic? And how is it “completely nonsensical”?
Incidentally, I think you should get your next (first
) job as a manager because you are good at saying something completely stupid and then fighting your way out of it.
You guys are really really Weird
*capital w*
If I just explained why 1 in 40 was half of a random comment and I apologized for any unintentional harm, why do you keep using it as a valid argument? Without it your whole reasoning runs on nothing:
Any bijective operator applied to a random number is still random; Similar that you do math tricks on bad data doesn’t mean the data gets any better.
I’m just wondering now with what intention you posted all this.
- If you were joking, then everyone had a laugh already so let’s drop it.
- If you wanted an apology, you had one in my previous post.
-If all you wanted was to confirm your idea that I’m arrogant, there’s probably nothing I can do to make you think otherwise. Makes me think of Fuytablees… (Any idea incidentally why everyone stopped playing?)
Maybe you can ask some other people what they think about me or just tell me next time you think I’m going too far. It’s more useful than writing blog posts.
- If you’re serious about playing an n-bango you could just have asked me normally. If you want to put money on it for whatever reason, try approaching it from my perspective cause even if with fair odds there’s nothing in it for me.
Take care
Oh boy….
Tasuki .. if it bugged you for whole 1 month till you got to posting about it I really think you should have talked about it sooner than get it anger you this much. Actually that 1/7 chance of 6d beating 4d is kinda surprisingly high for me, I thought it was much harder but anyway whz don’t you two just talk it out? This is getting close to ridiculous and sad
If you were joking, then everyone had a laugh already so let’s drop it.
Yes, good idea
……… and they lived happily ever after